Yves Nosbusch


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Les rendez-vous de l'économie

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Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2018

10/10/2018

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Slowdown in growth, rise in inflation, volatility in emerging-market economies: cause for concern?

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Outlook for the third quarter of 2018

05/07/2018

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Over the last few months, growth has been slowing down somewhat. How worried should we be about this?

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Outlook for the second quarter of 2018

20/03/2018

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Since the beginning of the year there has been a significant pickup in volatility in equity markets as well as a significant increase in long-term interest rates in the United States and in Europe. What are the key factors behind these moves?

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Outlook for the first quarter of 2018

17/01/2018

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Following a strong economic performance in 2017, what is the global outlook for 2018? What are the key risks in the current environment?

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European growth has surprised on the upside in 2017

30/11/2017

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The economic performance of the eurozone has undoubtedly been one of the positive surprises of 2017. The fears and uncertainties that overshadowed the European economy at the start of the year have given way to confidence and optimism in the last few months.  [read more]

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The time is right for structural reforms

31/10/2017

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The European economy has not been doing this well for a decade. Growth is back, unemployment is gradually falling, and leading indicators suggest that confidence has been building.  [read more]

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Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2017

04/10/2017

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All eyes seem to be on central banks at the moment. What are the key changes to monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic ?

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Residential Real Estate and Global Financial Stability

14/07/2017

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After a decade of unprecedented monetary support, we are at a key moment when all the major central banks are likely to gradually reduce their support. Even if central banks will undoubtedly be very cautious in handling this transition, it is worth asking whether there are potential risks for global financial stability. [read more]

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Outlook for the third quarter of 2017

05/07/2017

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Leading indicators have picked up over recent months in the world's main economies. This should allow a gradual unwinding of the extremely accommodative monetary policy measures of recent years. What are the key risks to the world economy in this context?

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How vulnerable are housing markets to a rise in interest rates?

21/04/2017

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With interest rates still close to historical lows and increasing signs of a pickup in global inflation, a key question for global financial stability is how vulnerable residential real estate markets are to a rise in interest rates. [read more]

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Outlook for the second quarter of 2017

04/04/2017

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Is inflation back globally? What is at stake in the area of international trade [video]

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How is US economic policy likely to change?

23/03/2017

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On the economic front, the new US President's priorities seem to lie in two main areas: fiscal policy and international trade. [read more]

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Economic Outlook: All Eyes on the United States

30/01/2017

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What are the key aspects of the new President's economic programme? First, it is important to remember that there remains a lot of uncertainty about the details of the programme. The market has quickly focused on the fiscal side where the intentions seem relatively clear. [read more]

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Outlook for the first quarter of 2017

18/01/2017

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What are the key aspects of the likely economic policies of the new President of the United States? What are the implications for Europe? [video]

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The reaction of the markets to the US election

01/12/2016

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How should we interpret the reaction of the markets to the election of Donald Trump? The immediate reaction to the result was characterised by “risk off” behaviour with a fall in stock prices, US long-term interest rates and the dollar. However this initial trend, which was in all likelihood due to an increase in uncertainty, quickly reversed. [read more]

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All Eyes on the Fed

19/09/2016

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The Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this Tuesday and Wednesday in what will be a key event for financial market participants around the world during this back-to-school period. Why do the Fed's decisions matter so much to the global economy right now? [ read more ]

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Volatility originating in emerging markets

03/06/2016

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Global markets have experienced several bouts of high volatility since 2015, triggered by unforeseen developments in emerging markets, particularly in China. [ read more ]

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Spillovers from emerging markets: why have they increased?

17/05/2016

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The IMF has recently argued that the importance of spillovers, in particular those from emerging to advanced economies, has increased significantly over the last two decades. There are a number of potential channels through which such spillovers may take effect: a portfolio channel, a “risk on/risk off” channel, a “search for yield” channel, and a signalling channel. This note argues that only the signalling channel seems consistent with all of the available evidence. [ read more ]

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Wage inflation: a key difference between Europe and the United States

14/04/2016

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In the latest edition of its Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), the IMF argues that the importance of financial spillovers has grown significantly over the last two decades. In particular, spillovers from emerging economies' financial markets may now account for more than a third of the variation in advanced economies' equity and foreign exchange returns. [ read more ]

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Wage inflation: a key difference between Europe and the United States

19/11/2015

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Economists had begun to worry that the famous Phillips curve had disappeared. In the version most commonly used today, it describes a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and changes in the inflation rate.  [ read more ]

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Liquidity levels and liquidity risk

09/11/2015

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Recent evidence suggests that overall levels of market liquidity remain high, with only a few market segments showing signs of worsening liquidity.  [ read more ]

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On liquidity risk

12/10/2015

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The October issue of the International Monetary Fund's Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that overall market liquidity remains high but could be less resilient in case of a bad shock.  [ read more ]

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The stock market and economic activity in China

23/07/2015

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The Chinese stock market has been through an extraordinary year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rose by 150% between 1 July 2014 and 12 June 2015. Since then share prices have nosedived, losing around one third of their value in less than a month. [ read more ]

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Emerging risks

08/05/2015

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Over the past few months, the global economy has been confronted with a number of fundamental shocks. Price movements in key markets have been sunstantial. In particular, this has been true of both oil and other commodities. [ read more ]

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Shifting risks to global financial stability

20/04/2015

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In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, the International Monetary Fund highlights new and “rotating” risks to global financial stability. The fall in commodity prices and the sharp appreciation of the dollar have shifted risks from advanced economies to emerging markets, particularly commodity exporters and those sectors/countries that have accumulated significant levels of dollar-denominated debt. [ read more ]

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The effects of Quantitative Easing on long-term interest rates

26/03/2015

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The European Central Bank has started its Quantitative Easing programme this month. The transactions involved are considerable (totalling some €60 billion a month) and concern bonds with maturities ranging from two to thirty years. The programme is to continue at least through September 2016. What kind of effect will these purchases have on long rates going forward? [ read more ]

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US rate hikes approaching

06/03/2015

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For the first time in six years the US Federal Reserve could raise its key interest rates in 2015. In her testimony before Congress on 24-25 February, Janet Yellen laid out the conditions that would be required for the US central bank to raise rates. [ read more ]

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Central banks and exchange rates

12/02/2015

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How should we interpret the recent decision by the Swiss National Bank to abandon the floor of 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro that it had enforced since 2011? [ read more ]

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The slowdown in China

22/01/2015

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Signs of a slowdown in China have been accumulating since last summer. Electricity production has fallen sharply and growth of industrial production has reached its lowest level since 2009. The growth rate of the economy has slowed to 7.4% in 2014, following 7.7% in 2013, and the slowdown looks set to continue in 2015.

 [ read more ]

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The causes and consequences of the oil price collapse

18/12/2014

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The price of oil has plummeted since June, by more than 40% in dollar terms and more than 30% in euro terms. And the trend has gathered speed in the last few weeks. So why has this spectacular fall occurred now? Who stands to win and lose from a sharp drop in the oil price and what are the likely consequences on growth and inflation in the euro zone and worldwide? [ read more ]

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Rain check?

18/12/2014

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At its meeting on 4 December, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) postponed any decision on large-scale bond purchases until 2015. The disinflationary trend is becoming more and more of a challenge for the ECB, which recently made downwards revisions to its growth and inflation forecasts. It is now expecting inflation of 0.7% for 2015, down by 0.4% compared to its September forecast. In addition, these estimates do not take account of the recent oil price fall following the OPEC's unexpected decision on 27 November not to reduce its oil production. [ read more ]

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Japan: the surprises keep coming

21/11/2014

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The news coming out of Japan over the last few weeks have caught most observers by surprise. How should these announcements and the sometimes violent market reactions be interpreted? What are the likely medium-term consequences for the Japanese economy? [ read more ]

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In defence of better regulation

24/10/2014

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By awarding the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences to Jean Tirole from the University of Toulouse, Sweden's Royal Academy of Sciences has acknowledged the vast body of work of a researcher who has made fundamental contributions in a number of areas. [ read more ]

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Exchange rates and purchasing power parities

29/09/2014

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Exchange rate movements can be dramatic, as illustrated once again by the euro's rapid slide against other major currencies since the start of the summer. Such short- and medium-term movements are often driven by technical factors, particularly the positioning of market participants, rather than by macroeconomic fundamentals. At longer horizons, what can we learn from fundamental relationships such as the purchasing power parity (PPP)? [ read more ]

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A worrying drop in inflation expectations

12/09/2014

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Inflation in the euro zone continued falling during the summer. Above all, there are increasing signs that medium-term inflation expectations are becoming disanchored. The European Central Bank (ECB) reacted to this worrying development at its meeting on 4 September. [ read more ]

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Why is the euro finally falling?

02/09/2014

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After a long period of appreciation against the other major currencies, the euro has finally fallen over the last few months. What has caused this reversal and what could be the consequences for the economies of the euro zone? [ read more ]

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Overconfidence

01/09/2014

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Overconfidence is a flaw that seems to be rooted in the human psyche. It is a fascinating phenomenon, both for its pervasiveness and for the consequences it may have. As such, it deserves close attention when we are faced with major decisions.  [ read more ]

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The way options are presented and its surprising impact on choices

5/08/2014

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We make countless choices in our everyday lives, from the configuration of our telephone to deciding whether or not to invest in a private pension plan for instance. How are our choices influenced by the menu of options presented to us?  [ read more ]

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Time inconsistencies in human behaviour

4/07/2014

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This article, which is about impatience, is the first in a series that aims to illustrate advances in behavioural economics. [ read more ]

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Unconventional monetary policies

19/06/2014

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The meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) on 5 June was a milestone for eurozone monetary policy. The ECB plunged into uncharted waters by unveiling a package of unconventional measures. Above all, it implicitly paved the way for using its last round of ammunition, namely large-scale bond purchases (Quantitative Easing).  [ read more ]

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An important step by the ECB

05/06/2014

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The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has acted decisively. As well as cutting its main policy rates, its president has announced a novel long-term refinancing operation targeted directly at the real economy, and an intensification of preparatory work on outright purchases of Asset Backed Securities (ABS). What impact are the measures, announced on 5 June, likely to have? And will they be enough to bring eurozone inflation closer to the ECB's 2% target?  [ read more ]

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Demystifying Asset Backed Securities

09/05/2014

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Inflation in the euro zone remains too low, i.e., too far removed from the European Central Bank's (ECB) objective of 2%. If this situation persists over the coming months, the likelihood of unconventional monetary policy measures by the ECB increases. In particular, the ECB could launch a programme of large-scale bond purchases, known as Quantitative Easing, in the same way as the central banks of the USA, Japan and the UK. It could purchase sovereign bonds and private debt securities, notably Asset Backed Securities (ABS). [ read more ]

 

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Japan: the moment of truth is getting closer

11/04/2014

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In Japan, the hike in the VAT rate from 5% to 8% on 1 April should have two immediate effects: a mechanical rise in inflation and a significant slowdown in growth. It will also mark a key stage for Abenomics, the sweeping economic programme launched just over a year ago by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Following a lengthy period of deflation and slow growth since the early 1990s, the government formed after the December 2012 general election indeed announced an innovative programme based on three strategic pillars. [ read more ]

 

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The European Central Bank Stands Ready to Act

14/03/2014

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In the past, central banks have often had to contend with excessive inflation. In most advanced economies today they face the opposite problem in the shape of weak inflation or even the threat of deflation – a broad-based fall in prices. Deflation can have a damaging impact on the real economy, as shown by Japan's experience over the past two decades... [ read more ]

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ABS: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?

20/02/2014

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With ECB President Mario Draghi's recent comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, asset backed securities (ABS) are back on the agenda. The idea that reviving the ABS market could help to unlock the credit flow to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) has raised some eyebrows as some of these very same securities have been widely blamed for triggering the recent financial crisis. So how might ABS help? [ read more ]

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Stock Market Predictability: An Assessment of the Evidence 

04/12/2013

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The predictability of prices and therefore of returns on different types of has been a central question of finance for centuries. The laureates of the 2013 Prize in Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel... [ read more ]